Current A-share market's After the correction, in particular, plummeted on Thursday, some people worry that the bull market is not the end of a feast?
Huli Yang: At that time the forecast refers to the short-term, long term I think the feast is still no signal to the end . My knee rheumatism would predict the trend of the broader market, it did not tell me to reverse the trend of the mainland stock market (laughs). the year on Wall Street when there is no computer graphics, and I knelt on the floor every day to read the tape to draw and analyze a variety of graphics, long-term work to get my knee knees have this wrong : In addition to your knees, in your opinion, to determine the end of a bull market, which features needed?
Huli Yang: rheumatoid knee on the broader market may respond with feelings when I read the tape on it. I do not lip service, I Judgement on the stock market is based on years of statistical data. by Japan, Singapore and other market research, I think that as long as the number of accounts opened within 10% of the total population, the market will not turn bears, during No more than 25% in the next 10 trading days and did not return to high-end, it should be is to get to the mid-term adjustment, this adjustment may be a month or so. For example, stock index fell 4,800 points from 6,000 points in 10 trading days can not rise, then the time will taken care of. transferred from the cow bears a sign that the index fell more than 25% from the high-end, on line and received three consecutive Yinxian, said the losing streak 3 months, under such circumstances, we determine the future need to be more cautious.
a, . my rough calculation, if the accounts, 10% of the total population, the corresponding index should be 6000 points. So, I judge A shares have entered the first phase of maturity, and porridge, significance. In 6000, the investment depends on real ability, and everyone can use my ; large make a small lose What are the lessons to learn from A shares?
Huli Yang: Taiwan on the late 80s stock market crash and the recent surge in A shares, the background is exactly the same, are in the currency appreciation and rapid economic growth stage, causing a large influx of international hot money. I remember one-time appreciation of the NT was 40% to 50%, the results did not able to hot money to stay in the island, the stock market collapse. and the mainland in this respect, many wise, regardless of pressure from the United States or the European Union, is the slow rise of the yuan revaluation This is helpful for keeping hot money.
Although from 2000 to 3000, when foreign investors began to sing the air A shares, but I think the mainland stock market is not as serious at that time so the Taiwan stock market bubble. the market upward trend has not fundamentally changed, only reduce the chances of gold in the streets a lot, but I have not seen the reverse pull-back signal. As for how the stock market is in a stage, I do not think we should be after the mid-side stage. bull market cycle is generally 4 years, but our A shares rose too much, too fast. I do not want to repeat the Taiwan stock market crash of the mistakes the mainland, it is recommended to do more investor education, so that our stock market a long long time to develop, run a nice expressed concerns.
Huli Yang: Based on the current high-speed growth of the Mainland economy, I think the A shares of 60 to 80 times earnings is acceptable. If the economic slowdown, I feel a bit high. I concerned that rose too fast. in accordance with the , this way, Hot chaos, I think that short-term risky and must not be taken lightly. But I have not seen long-term bubble, you can also optimistic about.
futures companies as members, which means that the formal launch of stock index futures have been far away. You feel it in the long term and short term may have on the A shares what kind of impact?
Huli Yang: In theory, the introduction of stock index futures the stock market have no effect on long-term, short-term will be a little risk. stock index futures speculation both functions, but also the function of hedging, is a two-way. For large corporate, the use of futures can avoid market risks, but also use it to some retail investors make speculative transactions. as long as the hedging and speculative single-balanced one,Discount UGG boots, the operation of the stock market is no big impact, and if the corporation is less than one speculative hedge large orders, it will result in short-term volatility on the stock market.
Note that stock index futures have amplification. good times, it will fuel to the flames; fall, it will be insult to injury. specific risk depends on the ability to control the management, however, from the history of capital market development to see the introduction of stock index futures allow investors to more than a choice, it is very healthy.
A shares next 10 years will surpass Hong Kong stocks
, the linkage between the two markets is increasingly strong, the future of A shares and Hong Kong market, the relationship between how you see, who will control pricing?
Huli Yang: AH shares seesaw relationship between the original is. in my opinion , the Hong Kong stock market is like a reservoir, if less water can drain from somewhere else. Hong Kong has a special role in the Mainland market, for instance, to ease inflationary pressures in the Mainland can be opened to QDII,UGG boots clearance, the water introduced into Hong Kong. It China played a role in regulating water. than the rest of the world stock markets, I think the biggest advantage of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock in this.
As for pricing,cheap UGG boots, I think in 10 to 15 years, you can see the Hong Kong market The feature will be less than the mainland A shares. With the A shares higher and higher degree of internationalization, Shanghai and Beijing's position on the international financial markets will overtake Hong Kong. if the index can maintain steady growth, I can say that after 10 years Mainland stock market will become an energy giant's to less
and, of course, which also has a lot to RMB appreciation. In addition, we recommend our attention, Olympic concept stock is worth mentioning I think, one of the aviation and tourism sector is cause for concern.
Now, the pace of individual stocks in turmoil, the adjustment plate faster, barely see the hot spots, which indicates that we are beginning to worry , and this time it is best to see more than action. not blindly chasing the high, you may be stuck with a chase another job. play the stock market to go along with the immediate focus,UGG shoes, the less stock temporarily not do it. Otherwise, wide end does not regret, for the shares of sales people were emaciated, and careful.
Huli Yang: I think the girl's intuition is very powerful, probably because often go shopping (shopping), she particularly sensitive to price, this feature is very suitable to do the stock. big money people are generally very good mentality and people capable of operating skills. As for the fundamentals, I did accounting in the United States, that this kind of thing can not superstition. Even if the fundamentals of good stock, operating skills if you do not understand the words, but also in 10 throw away the money to buy 12. no technique, no matter how good the fundamentals are not used.
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